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Now is the time to buy a house in the U.S.
It's not because of what's specifically going on in the housing market. It's not because of supply and demand or some good data point that could drive prices higher.
Believe me, there are still plenty of reasons to be bullish on housing, as I've recently explained. But that's not why you should consider buying TODAY.
It's time to buy a house right now because home prices suffer from extreme seasonality. And January is the absolute best time to put your money to work.
Let me explain…
"Seasonality" simply means that an asset's price tends to peak and bottom at certain times of the year. Many assets are seasonal… But few assets move in seasonal trends as consistently as U.S. housing.
Home prices tend to bottom (for the year) in January. And they tend to peak (for the year, again) in June. This happens year after year, like clockwork.
The chart below shows average single-family-home prices since the housing bust. The pattern is consistent and obvious. Take a look…
The lows always occur in the winter months (January), and the highs always occur in the summer months (June).
And this isn't a post-crash phenomenon. Housing prices have followed this pattern for decades, as the chart below shows. Look at the consistent "up-and-down" price movement from year to year. It's incredible…
What's crazy is how extreme the swings in housing prices are from their yearly bottom to their yearly peak… In short, home prices typically make all of their gains from their January bottoms through their June peaks.
The table below shows what I mean…
Home prices have only increased 3% a year since 1989. And all of the gains happened from January to June… In that period, home prices tend to rise 9%, on average. Wow!
Over the rest of the year – from June to January – home prices tend to lose value.
If you've been wondering when to finally take that step and buy a new house, you've got your answer… Right now!
January is the best time of the year to buy a home. It's the seasonal bottom for home prices in the U.S. And the biggest gains for 2016 will likely occur over the next five months.
If you're thinking about buying, do it now!
On Your Team,
Ken
951-760-3833
KenAHall@gmail.com
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Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Saturday, January 23, 2016
HOW TO GET YOUR LENDER TO PAY YOUR CLOSING COSTS
Many
prospective buyers have a downpayment but are 'short' dollars for
closing costs, (typically 2-2.5% of the loan amount), which include
'hard costs,' prorations, impounds for taxes /insurance, and 1
month’s house payment.
But
there are options that can HELP squeeze buyers into that first home.
'Lender
Paid' Closing Costs
FHA
–VA- and Fannie /Freddie all allow the lender OR sellers to pay the
buyer's closing costs.
Let’s
focus on the lender options
If
the buyer has a low 'debt to income ratio' (DTI) they can then
inflate their interest rate and use the lender 'rebate' to cover the
closing costs up to 3% (points) of their loan amount.
Banks
and mortgage bankers typically limit buyers to 1% of the loan amount
in lender paid closing costs; mortgage brokers are limited to 3%.
Most
buyers initially react poorly to the proposal of a higher initial
payment; so let’s do the math (all numbers rounded off) for just
the 'P and I' (principal and interest) portion of the monthly
payment.
Get ready to be surprised.
Interest
Rate vs. Lender Credit, Scenario 1
$300k
Loan
30
year Fixed
Interest
Rate: 4% (Zero Points)
Payment:
$1432
Lender
Credit to Buyer: “Zero Dollars”
Scenario
2
$300k
Loan
30
year Fixed
Interest
Rate: 4.5% (Zero Points)
Payment:
$1520
Lender
Credit to Buyer: $6,000
Dividing
the $6000 credit by the higher payment of $88, puts the buyer in the
positive cash flow position for 5 years 8 months (68).
The
issue to keep in mind, during those '68' months it’s
(statistically) a virtual certainty the homeowner will:
1)
Purchase a 'move-up' home
2)
Refinance their current loan to a lower rate, get rid of their
monthly mortgage insurance or get a 'cash out' refi.
Government
Loans
If a buyer is getting an FHA or VA loan, we can 'streamline
refinance' their loan 7 months later to a significantly lower
interest rate with little or no closing costs.
In
Closing
The
amount of lender paid closing costs a buyers can receive varies by
each type of lender.
Mortgage
brokers can pay up to 3% of the loan amount while banks and direct
lenders are limited to 1%.
So
shop around, it can be the difference of thousands of dollars. Call me anytime if you have questions.
Ken
951-760-3833
***************
Friday, December 4, 2015
CREDIT SCORE MYTHS EXPOSED!!
***********
If the “CO SIGNEE” (“child”) makes 12 loan payments directly FROM THEIR OWN PERSONAL ACCOUNTS… directly TO THE CREDITOR…the debt will (usually) not count against CO SIGNER (parent).
Every
day prospective buyers are making ill-informed credit decisions that
affect their FICO scores.
With
the down economy it seems every radio and TV show is hosting credit
gurus with “obvious” methods of boosting credit scores (i.e. “pay
your bills on time”…duh). It’s the misinformation they are
dispensing which is damaging buyer’s/borrower's FICO scores.
Based
on my 25-plus years in the mortgage and real estate business I’ve
become well versed in many “trial and error” methods that the
gurus simply are unaware of.
For
the sake of brevity, I’ll simply list bullet points that illustrate
the most common misconceptions.
1)
“Free” credit report scores are accurate and reflect mortgage
report scores. No. For the purposes of obtaining a mortgage; free
credit reports are literally worthless.
2)
A loan modification is viewed the same as a foreclosure/short sale.
Not any more! If a borrower is granted a loan mod they can go onto
purchase or refi 24 months from the date of the mod!
3)
Every derogatory item hurts your credit score. No. Most items more
than 4 years old do not affect your score. California law deems debts
over 4 years old are not collectible / enforceable.
Collection
accounts are often “sold and resold” (creating a “rolling”
effect) initially affecting credit scores long after the original
debt has long since expired.
However
disputing debt over 7 years old with the 3 credit bureaus will cause
the bureaus to remove the item(s) and bar collection agencies from
re-reporting the debt.
4)
Every collection account needs to be paid off to obtain a loan. No.
Do not pay off collection accounts (or any old derogatory accounts)
before the close of escrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Old derogatory accounts
paid before close of escrow will result in lower credit scores!
I
know that’s counter intuitive but that’s the way the system is
rigged. You see, by paying off an old derogatory account, you're
creating new activity on an old but STILL derogatory account.
The
account now has a 'zero' balance (which is good), but it's still a
derogatory account. So any 'new' activity (paying it off) is picked
up by the credit bureaus and dings your fico score.
Whether
the item needs to paid at close of escrow, is at an underwriter’s
discretion when the loan is approved. It will depend on the amount
and how old the item is.
5)
A divorce decree legally discharges a spouse from the
responsibility for a debt that was incurred by both parties. Wrong!!
A divorce court can’t absolve either spouse form a joint debt.
6)
Co signing for a loan / credit report will be counted against the
debt to income ratios when qualifying for a new mortgage. The answer
is mixed.
If the “CO SIGNEE” (“child”) makes 12 loan payments directly FROM THEIR OWN PERSONAL ACCOUNTS… directly TO THE CREDITOR…the debt will (usually) not count against CO SIGNER (parent).
If
a consignee is paying the cosigner directly with cash (or by check) ,
the payment WILL count against the co-signers DTI.
7)
Credit scores can be improved quickly if the loan applicant is added
to another person’s account(s) with a superior credit score. TRUE.
However
if a co signee misses a payment or goes on a shopping binge at
Nordstrom’s, both borrowers credit scores will suffer.
8)
Court judgments are only reported for 7 years. The answer is
mixed.
Judgments
are reported for 7 years BUT are valid for 10 years.
Judgments
can be renewed for another 10 years by refiling the judgment by the
prevailing party (winner).
Typically
after 7 years the judgment drops off the buyer’s credit report BUT
the judgment has “morphed” into an “abstract” judgment and
attaches to their home after the grant deed is recorded at the county
courthouse.
Often
the homeowner will not discover the “abstract” until they sell
(or refi) the home (years later) and the abstract appears on the
(preliminary) title report.
9)
Closing credit lines and accounts will raise credit scores. Wrong!
Wrong! Wrong! It’s just another misconception that’s killing
transactions. Don’t close any accounts with a positive payment
history PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!
10)
Past debts (not listed) on a credit report, do not have to be paid
before the close of escrow. Wrong.
If
your borrower HAS EVER defaulted on a government debt
(state/federal/county),it will come back to bite them at the very
last moment just before loan docs are drawn.
Including:
child support, student loans, unpaid county hospital bills etc.
11)
You can have "too much credit". No. Just keep your balances
as low as possible. Older "open" credit lines (even if not
being used) contribute to higher FICO scores.
Never
close a credit line that has a good payment history!
12)
If you pay off an old collection account, it will then fall off
your credit report. NO. Collection accounts will remain on your
credit report for seven years. It will simply show a zero balance
but will remain on your credit report for seven years.
I
hope you find this information helpful!
Ken
Hall
951-760-3833
****************
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Great Time at the Charger Game!!
What a great time at the Charger game this past Sunday (even though the Chargers stink this year).
* My good friend, John Sparkenbach, was the guest of honor for the coin flip.
* My two youngest sons, Austin & Logan, along with my client and friend, Bill Gibbs.
Bill is the head honcho for Qualcomm Stadium and took a moment from his busy schedule to come over and say hello before kick-off. It was a fantastic experience for my Boys (and Me!).
*************
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Money-Saving Tax Benefits for New & Long-Term Homeowners
*********
I know it's not yet Tax Filing season but now is actually the perfect time to start preparing so you can make the most of all the tax saving benefits at your disposal.
I've created a Special Report that I guarantee you'll find helpful and profitable:
It's a quick read and checks all the boxes for maximum tax savings for homeowners. Just shoot me an email with 'Tax Savings' in the headline and I'll have it in your inbox in two shakes of a lamb's tail.
On Your Team,
Ken
951-760-3833
KenAHall@gmail.com
**************
I know it's not yet Tax Filing season but now is actually the perfect time to start preparing so you can make the most of all the tax saving benefits at your disposal.
I've created a Special Report that I guarantee you'll find helpful and profitable:
Money-Saving Tax Benefits for New & Long-Term Homeowners
It's a quick read and checks all the boxes for maximum tax savings for homeowners. Just shoot me an email with 'Tax Savings' in the headline and I'll have it in your inbox in two shakes of a lamb's tail.
On Your Team,
Ken
951-760-3833
KenAHall@gmail.com
**************
Saturday, October 17, 2015
Chris & Christina Find Their Wine Country Dream Property!
********
Chris & Christina Clark Purchased A Gorgeous 8.8 Acre Wine Country Dream Property. Prediction: The Tuscan Style Custom Home They're Building Will Be A Sight To Behold!
I worked with Ken to purchase a property in Temecula Wine Country. He came ready with advice not only on the real estate process, but also provided resources on other items that would make my project successful. He was able to recommend specific contacts to help with the well, surveying the property and more.
I would give Ken my highest recommendation and look forward to recommending him to my friends as they leave the Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego areas as they head to a more peaceful live in Temecula Wine Country.
Chris Clark
VP & Chief Development Officer
www.OperationGratitude.com
*************
Chris & Christina Clark Purchased A Gorgeous 8.8 Acre Wine Country Dream Property. Prediction: The Tuscan Style Custom Home They're Building Will Be A Sight To Behold!
I worked with Ken to purchase a property in Temecula Wine Country. He came ready with advice not only on the real estate process, but also provided resources on other items that would make my project successful. He was able to recommend specific contacts to help with the well, surveying the property and more.
I would give Ken my highest recommendation and look forward to recommending him to my friends as they leave the Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego areas as they head to a more peaceful live in Temecula Wine Country.
Chris Clark
VP & Chief Development Officer
www.OperationGratitude.com
*************
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Alka Seltzer Can Do . . . Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!
**************
* Clean a toilet. Drop in two Alka
Seltzer tablets, wait twenty minutes, brush and flush.
* Clean a vase. To remove a stain from
the bottom of a glass vase or cruet, fill with water, and drop in two
Alka Seltzer tablets.
* Polish jewelry. Drop two Alka
Seltzer tablets into a glass of water and immerse the jewelry for two
minutes.
* Clean a thermos bottle.. Fill the
bottle with water, drop in four Alka Seltzer tablets, and let soak
for an hour (Or longer, if necessary).
* Unclog a drain. Clear the sink drain
by dropping three Alka Seltzer tablets down the drain followed by a
cup of Heinz White Vinegar. Wait a few minutes, and then run the hot
water.
Do your friends a favor. Pass this
timely (and some not-so-timely) information on to a friend! I know I
just did.
Makes you wonder about ingesting Alka
Seltzer, doesn't it?
Call me if I can help with anything at all.
Ken
951-760-3833
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