Why we could see LOWER interest rates in early 2017

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“It’s finally behind us. We’ve finally seen the bottom in interest rates.”

How many times have we heard that before? How many times have experts “called the bottom,” only to see rates fall once more?

It’s happening again today…

Interest rates soared in recent months… to a multi-year high. Most people expect that trend to continue.

But chances are good that long-term interest rates will fall, not rise, in 2017.

Let me explain why…

Long-term interest rates have been falling for decades. Ten-year U.S. government bonds paid roughly 5% in interest a decade ago. Today, they pay around half that.

Despite the long-term downtrend, most people are convinced that rates will head higher from here. They think we’ve seen the ultimate bottom.

Folks said the same thing three years ago. Interest rates bottomed in the summer of 2012 at around 1.5%. They doubled to around 3% by the end of 2013.

Hitting 1.5% had to be the ultimate bottom in rates, right?

Wrong.

It was wrong back then for the same reason it’s likely wrong today: Most people believed it.

This is the crux of using sentiment in investing – when everyone believes in one outcome, the opposite tends to happen.

That is what’s happening in the government bond market today. We can see this by looking at where the real-money bets are right now. And we can see them through the Commitment of Traders (COT) report.

The COT report shows the real-money bets of futures traders (the “smart money”). Right now, the smart money is betting on lower rates… which is exactly what we saw in 2013. Take a look…

The smart money expects higher bond prices (which means lower interest rates).

You can see that the COT reached a similar top at the end of 2013. And 10-year government bond rates then fell from around 3% to below 2% over the next 13 months. They eventually reached a new all-time low this summer.

Will we see a new all-time low in the coming months or years? I don’t know. But that’s not important. What’s important is that everyone expects higher rates to continue.

Today, the trade of betting on higher long-term interest rates is crowded… And when a trade gets this crowded, the opposite tends to happen.

That’s why we could see long-term interest rates fall – not rise – in early 2017.

Give me a call if I can help you in any way.

On Your Team,

Ken
951-760-3833
KenAHall@gmail.com

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Quote I'm Pondering ...

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“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”

H. L. Mencken

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Sunset in Temecula, California

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On the very, very rare occasions when we have an afternoon rain/shower in Temecula, California, the sunsets afterwards are unbelievable. These photographs have not been altered in anyway. Taken from my front and backyard at sunset, September 20, 2016. Enjoy!

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Current Temecula Valley Real Estate Stats

Quote I'm Pondering ...

SUMMER . . .

Summer is over and school's in session.

To my kids:  "Time to hit the books!"

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Quote I'm pondering:

“All courses of action are risky, so prudence is not in avoiding danger (it’s impossible), but calculating risk and acting decisively. Make mistakes of ambition and not mistakes of sloth. Develop the strength to do bold things, not the strength to suffer.”

– Niccolo Machiavelli, Author of "The Prince"

BEAUTIFUL! BLACKMORE RANCH! 4 BR 3 BA, 3,338 Sq Ft

BEAUTIFUL! BLACKMORE RANCH! 4 BR 3 BA, 3,338 Sq Ft

35826 Darcy Pl, Murrieta 92562

LIST PRICE: $469,000

BED / BATH: 4/3
SQFT(src): 3,338
GARAGE: 3-Car Tandem / Attached
YEAR BUILT: 2004

DESCRIPTION:
BEAUTIFUL BLACKMORE RANCH HOME! Quiet and secluded yet located between the 15/215 Freeways. This home has it all. 3,338 sq ft home; 12,632 sq ft lot. 4 bedrooms (1 downstairs), 3 full baths (1 downstairs). Beautiful, mature front landscaping, covered front porch with stone accents. Large well defined entry with formal dining room makes a great first impression (or for a pool table/game room!). 9 ft ceilings downstairs provides a spacious feel. Huge family kitchen with abundance of cabinets and counter space, includes huge island with breakfast counter and butler's pantry. Breakfast area is huge and can easily be used as formal dining area. Absolutely enormous family room with gas fireplace for comfortable entertaining. Large loft upstairs separating the upstairs bedrooms. Spacious master bedroom suite with adjoining master retreat/office/nursery. Large master bath with huge walk-in closet. Double vanity plus separate soaking tub and shower. Down Stairs level also has a large, private guest bedroom and full bathroom. Large laundry room upstairs with plenty of cabinets and counter space. 3-car tandem garage. Very private back yard (needs landscaping) backs up to a protected area (maintained by City of Murrieta) so no neighbors behind. Large back patio covering.

TAKE THE VIRTUAL TOUR NOW:
http://fusion.realtourvision.com/903805

Call Listing Agent Ken Hall for showing appointment, 951-760-3833

Directions: Take either 15 fwy or 215 fwy to Clinton Keith Rd. Turn North on Nutmeg, then turn left on Darcy Pl. Home on left.

Ken Hall
Allison James Estates & Homes

951-760-3833

www.KenHallProperties.com
www.facebook.com/TemeculaRealEstateandProperties

BRE License #01418440
NMLS License #1025206

SUMMER 2016

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It's been a great Summer so far for my family ... and I hope it has been for YOU, too!

Quote I'm Pondering:

"A successful life depends less on how long you live than on how much you can pack into the time you have. If you can find a way to make every day an adventure - even if it’s only a matter of walking down an unfamiliar street or ordering an untried cut of meat - you will find that your life becomes more productive, richer and more interesting. You also become more interesting to others."

John Templeton
Founder of Templeton Growth Fund, Ltd.

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IS THE U.S. HOUSING BOOM BEGINNING TO RUN OUT OF STEAM?

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This past week, new home prices in America hit a record high…

The median new home price in the U.S. is now $321,000.

The record high grabs the headlines… but the housing story right now is even more powerful than the headline alone suggests.

For example, new house prices are up 9.7% since last month – the biggest increase since 1992.

So… did you miss out on all the gains?

No, no and no…

In short, the case for housing hasn’t changed…

Mortgage rates are around 3.5% – near record lows. And the supply of new homes is low – there are enough to last 4.7 months at current sales levels. So the fundamental case for higher home prices is extremely solid. There’s plenty of upside.

Beyond these housing-specific numbers, the bigger issue is this: Your mattress pays no interest.

Mom and Pop America earn next-to-zero percent interest on their money in the bank…

You can’t retire on zero percent. You need to do something else with your money to live off of it in retirement.

Mom and Pop America need to buy a rental property and earn rent… or they need to buy dividend-paying stocks. Currently, they’re doing neither.

That needs to change… because their mattress isn’t about to start paying them interest.

Mom and Pop haven’t bought a rental property or stocks yet. But they will.

We might be approaching the later innings of this housing boom that has lasted from 2011 to 2016. But there’s still plenty of upside from here. There’s plenty of money to be made in housing (and the stock market).

Take advantage of it now before it’s too late…

Give me a call if I can help you in any way.

On Your Team,

Ken

951-760-3833

KenAHall@gmail.com

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HOW TO BECOME A BETTER PERSON: BECOME MORE SELFLESS

I ran across a great story the other day and thought I'd share it. Here's the short version:

In Soul Food, Jack Kornfield and Christina Feldman tell the story of an Illinois family whose young daughter became ill and was diagnosed with a life-threatening blood disease.

A search went out for a compatible donor but, as she had a rare blood type, none could be found. Then it was discovered that her 6-year-old brother shared her blood type. The boy’s mother and doctor sat down with him to ask if he was willing to donate blood to save his sister’s life.

To their surprise, he didn’t answer right away. He needed some time to think about it. After a few days, he came back to his mother and announced he would do it.

As Kornfield and Feldman write:

The following day the doctor brought both children to his clinic and placed them on cots next to each other. He wanted them to see how one was helping the other.

First he drew a half pint of blood from the young boy’s arm. Then he moved it over to his sister’s cot and inserted the needle so her brother could see the effect.

In a few minutes color began to pour back into her cheeks.

Then the boy motioned for the doctor to come over. He wanted to ask a question, very quietly.

"Will I start to die right away?" he asked.

You see, when he had been asked to donate his blood to save his sister’s life, his 6-year old mind understood the process literally. He thought he was trading his life for his sister’s.

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The New Testament tells us it is more blessed to give than to receive. But even if you don't subscribe to Christianity, the wisdom of sages throughout history have said the same thing.

Taoism suggests we extend our help without seeking reward. Buddha said that contentment is found in a generous heart, kind speech, and a life of service and compassion.

Hope you liked this little story. Give me a call if I can help you in any way.

On your Team,

Ken

951-760-3833

KenAHall@gmail.com

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GREAT NIGHT OF WINE TASTING!

My client and friends Chris & Christina Clark hosted a fantastic Vertical Wine Tasting at their home last night.  The featured wines were Temecula's own Leoness Cellers Syrah from 2008-2013.  My wife Jennifer and I, along with 22 other guests, had a great time.

By the way, Chris doesn't just enjoy our Temecula wine, he's a renowned expert.   He just published the definitive book on Temecula wineries.  The book is awesome and a must-have for Temecula residents who love and take pride in our Valley's great wineries. 

You can pick it up on Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/Temecula-Valley-Wine-Buying-Guide/dp/1523483954/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1463331647&sr=1-1&keywords=temecula+wine

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EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW . . . IN ONE CHART

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If I could boil down everything I believe about the future of the real estate market into one simple message . . . what would that message be?

I'll start with this: Central Banks around the world are pricing money (interest rates) at about ZERO PERCENT (yes, I'm continuing my theme of talking about interest rates because I truly believe what's happening is so powerful).

In a zero-percent-interest world, you can't live off interest. You have to do something with your money.

With interest rates at record lows, retirees and investors realize they have to do SOMETHING ELSE with their money other than earn no interest on it.

So… what are people doing with their money?

They are putting it into the stock market and real estate.

Global interest rates are near record lows. And that causes stock prices and house prices to keep hitting new highs.

The simple chart below tells you everything you need to know…

Please, examine the chart and understand what it's telling you. It is just about everything you need to know about the future of real estate and investing right now.

Let me explain it for you:

Global interest rates are near record lows. This has caused house prices and stock prices to soar. (I define global interest rates as the average interest rate on 10-year government bonds in four major countries: the U.S., Germany, Japan, and the U.K.) Specifically:

• U.S. house prices are at their highest levels since the great housing bust. (This is the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index).

• U.S. stock prices continue to push up against all-time highs. They are only about 2.5% below their all-time highs right now (as measured by the S&P 500 Index).

This story has been in place for a few years now… Can it possibly continue?

In short, yes…

We've had a number of good years in the stock market and the housing market recently. Because of this, most people think the good times have to end soon.

You have to keep the big picture in mind, though…

Retirees and investors everywhere are coming to the realization that you can't live on zero-percent interest. You have to do something with your money.

The light bulb is going off in people's heads these days – out of necessity. People are putting money to work in the stock market and the real estate market, whether it's the right thing for them or not.

As long as global interest rates remain low, I expect that this will continue.

I could be wrong, of course. You'd be surprised at how high I think things could go… I expect house prices and stock prices will rise to unimaginable heights before it's all over.

I think that's the natural outcome of our zero-percent world. Take advantage of it by jumping in now and riding the wave of equity appreciation.

Give me a call if I can help you in any way.

On Your Team,

Ken

951-760-3833

KenAHall@gmail.com

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ATTENTION: CORONA FHA / VA BUYERS!! Beautiful 3 BR 2.5 BA Home, 2-Car Garage

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2291 Posada Ct, Corona 92879    

LIST PRICE:   $369,000

BED / BATH:   3/2.5
SQFT(src):   1,524
GARAGE:  2/Attached
YEAR BUILT:  1995
Parcel #:  122253032


DESCRIPTION
Come and own a piece of Corona Hills at the "Del Rey" community located in the most centralized neighborhood in Corona. This spacious home is in a very well established and desirable area. It features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 2-car attached garage attached and a great lay out. Huge open vaulted ceiling in living room. Huge master suite with vaulted ceiling and bathroom with lots of upgraded elements, dual sinks, over sized shower and walk-in closet. Beautiful Island kitchen with huge bay window looking out to back yard. Close freeway access to the 91 & 15, popular shopping and restaurant venues, parks and excellent schools. Zoned as condo/PUD, however the home is fully detached with no common walls. HOA includes pool and spa within walking distance from the home! VA and FHA offers are welcomed and encouraged!

NOTE:  PROFESSIONAL PHOTOGRAPY PHOTOS COMING SOON!

Call Listing Agent Ken Hall for showing appointment, 951-760-3833

Ken Hall
Allison James Estates & Homes

951-760-3833

www.KenHallProperties.com
www.facebook.com/TemeculaRealEstateandProperties


BRE License #01418440
NMLS License #1025206
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Even Lower Mortgage Rates Are Coming

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Mortgage rates in the U.S. are incredibly low... and there's a great chance they'll go lower...

Last week, U.S. 30-year mortgage rates finished the week around 3.6%.

They haven't been this low – basically ever. (The exception is late 2012, when they nearly touched 3.3%.)

As an American, it sounds outrageous to even consider that they could go lower. But when you take the rest of the world into account, it's not as outrageous as it seems.

I will show you why today. But first, let's back up for a minute...

Where do mortgage rates come from? Who decides what they will be?

Typically, the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate is (somewhat) based off of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond interest rate...

Take the 30-year government rate (which is thought of as the "risk-free" rate)... add a bit of interest due to the risk of the borrower... and boom, there you have it. (It's a rough approximation of reality, at least.)

You can see this idea in the chart below... The lower line is the 30-year Treasury rate. The upper line is the 30-year mortgage rate...

It has to do with what's going on in the rest of the world...

Interest rates are crashing globally. And 30-year government bond rates outside the U.S. are "crazy low." Take a look:

Look closely at this list... One of these four is not like the others. Which one is it?

It doesn't take long to realize that U.S. interest rates are dramatically higher than the rest of the developed world.

Keep this in mind: Money flows where it's treated best.

The difference between U.S. rates and the rest of the world is simply too great for investors to ignore... Money is about to flow into the U.S.

Investors who have their money in low-paying bonds in Germany, Japan, and Switzerland will move some of that money into higher-paying U.S. bonds.

That will put downward pressure on long-term U.S. interest rates.

And the chart above shows, if U.S. interest rates on 30-year government bonds go down, U.S. mortgage rates will likely follow them lower.

Mortgage rates are incredibly low in the U.S. based on history. And as I showed today, there's a strong chance they could go even lower.

Give me a call if I can help you in any way.

On Your Team,

Ken

951-760-3833

KenAHall@gmail.com

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Julie Devine

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Yesterday, a couple hundred heartbroken people said goodbye to Julie Devine. The Devine family are dear friends of my wife, Jennifer, and I and our boys.

Julie made the world a better place. We've lost a part of our hearts with her passing but her life and example will always inspire us to strive to be as happy and uplifting as she always was.

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The Best Way to Take Advantage of Low to Negative Interest Rates

For the first time in history, the world's third-largest country just cut interest rates below zero.

The country isn't important. What's important is the trend – and it's a trend we need to take advantage of.  As unbelievable as it sounds, it's a trend that is likely coming to the United States in the near future.

Below, I'll show you exactly what you can do to make this unprecedented act work in your favor…

"Almost a quarter of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) now comes from countries with negative rates," According to an article in The Economist magazine this week.

In Sweden, for example, when you put your money in the bank, you don't EARN interest anymore. Instead, you have to PAY more than 1% a year just to keep your money in the bank.

Can you believe it? THAT is what negative interest rates look like.

When you think about it, the immediate results of negative interest rates are pretty obvious…

"Savers" get clobbered. Retirees lose money on their savings. It's terrible.

People borrow money.  Hey, it's 'Free.'  Why not get some.

The cheap and easy money causes asset prices to go up.  And why wouldn't they?  What do people do with free money?  They buy stuff.

Yes, our Federal Reserve recently RAISED interest rates, which caused the recent selloff in stock prices. But the Fed is likely done raising interest rates this year.)

So… what should you do to take advantage of it?

Just about all of us should start right at home…

Right now, the current national interest rate on a 15-year mortgage refinancing is 2.84%, according to www.BankRate.com.

U.S. housing is cheap (relative to the rest of the world, and relative to its own history).

House prices had their worst crash in generations, and now they're recovering. This is the safest moment.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates are not far from record lows. You must take advantage of this.

If you haven't done so already, refinance your house. And if you don't currently own a house, go buy one… Seriously.

30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. are in the 3.8% range. And 15-year mortgages are in the 3.1% range. These rates are not far from all-time record lows.

Don't get 'TAKEN' by ultra-low interest rates. Instead, consider taking advantage of them, starting right at home.

Call me if I can help in any way.

On Your Team,

Ken
951-760-3833
KenAHall@gmail.com

Stocks and House Prices Go UP When the Fed STARTS Raising Rates!

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You won't believe me... but it's true...

 

Stock prices and house prices actually do extremely well when the Fed STARTS raising interest rates...

 

I know, I know. I get it. It shouldn't happen.

 

Rising interest rates should be a "negative" for stocks, as corporate borrowing costs go up and profit margins go down.

 

But it turns out, these things don't hurt stock prices... Based on history, stocks go up.

 

Let me explain...

 

Since 1950, stocks have performed incredibly well when the Fed has started raising interest rates (called "tightening"). And stocks have actually under-performed when the Fed has started cutting interest rates (called "easing"). Take a look:

In December, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2006.

 

The rate hike is minor... It's almost irrelevant. What's happening is, the Federal Reserve is trying to get interest rates more "back to normal" as opposed to "tightening."

 

In the case of Fed rate hikes, the first rate hike does NOT tend to end bull markets. That might be because people are optimistic, and the first interest rate hike is a sign that things are getting back to normal.

 

Over the last 30 years, stocks have moved higher in the two years after a rate-hiking cycle began.

 

The Federal Reserve just hiked rates. Based on history, stocks could go higher over the next two years.

 

It's not all roses... Stocks tend to fall for a couple of months after the first time the Fed starts hiking rates. Then stocks enter a strong move higher.

 

We can't know for sure what will happen this time... There is no guarantee of a small downward move followed by a big upward move. But history is the best guide we have. And that's what it tells us.

 

The story is similar with U.S. house prices...

 

It's easy to make the case that house prices SHOULD go down when interest rates start to go up, as you would think that mortgage rates would go up.

 

But history tells a different story about house prices after the Fed starts raising interest rates...

 

Going back to the late 1960s, house prices perform incredibly well when the Fed starts raising interest rates. Take a look:

Most folks simply assume that the Fed raising interest rates is a bad thing for stock prices and for house prices.

 

Don't fall for this myth. It's simply not true.

 

The Fed is hiking rates for the first time since 2006 right now... But the start of a rate-hiking cycle is not a bad thing, based on history.

And besides that, with the recent stock market correction and signs of economic weakening, my guess is the Fed will NOT be raising rates any further for at least the next twelve months.

 

U.S. stocks and house prices can still go much higher from here...

 

On Your Team,

Ken

951-760-3833

KenAHall@gmail.com

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Right Now Is the Time to Buy a House!

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Now is the time to buy a house in the U.S.

It's not because of what's specifically going on in the housing market. It's not because of supply and demand or some good data point that could drive prices higher.

Believe me, there are still plenty of reasons to be bullish on housing, as I've recently explained. But that's not why you should consider buying TODAY.

It's time to buy a house right now because home prices suffer from extreme seasonality. And January is the absolute best time to put your money to work.

Let me explain…

"Seasonality" simply means that an asset's price tends to peak and bottom at certain times of the year. Many assets are seasonal… But few assets move in seasonal trends as consistently as U.S. housing.

Home prices tend to bottom (for the year) in January. And they tend to peak (for the year, again) in June. This happens year after year, like clockwork.

The chart below shows average single-family-home prices since the housing bust. The pattern is consistent and obvious. Take a look…

The lows always occur in the winter months (January), and the highs always occur in the summer months (June).

And this isn't a post-crash phenomenon. Housing prices have followed this pattern for decades, as the chart below shows. Look at the consistent "up-and-down" price movement from year to year. It's incredible…

What's crazy is how extreme the swings in housing prices are from their yearly bottom to their yearly peak… In short, home prices typically make all of their gains from their January bottoms through their June peaks.

The table below shows what I mean…

Home prices have only increased 3% a year since 1989. And all of the gains happened from January to June… In that period, home prices tend to rise 9%, on average. Wow!

Over the rest of the year – from June to January – home prices tend to lose value.

If you've been wondering when to finally take that step and buy a new house, you've got your answer… Right now!

January is the best time of the year to buy a home. It's the seasonal bottom for home prices in the U.S. And the biggest gains for 2016 will likely occur over the next five months.

If you're thinking about buying, do it now!

On Your Team,

Ken
951-760-3833
KenAHall@gmail.com

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HOW TO GET YOUR LENDER TO PAY YOUR CLOSING COSTS

Many prospective buyers have a downpayment but are 'short' dollars for closing costs, (typically 2-2.5% of the loan amount), which include 'hard costs,' prorations, impounds for taxes /insurance, and 1 month’s house payment.

But there are options that can HELP squeeze buyers into that first home.

'Lender Paid' Closing Costs

FHA –VA- and Fannie /Freddie all allow the lender OR sellers to pay the buyer's closing costs.

Let’s focus on the lender options

If the buyer has a low 'debt to income ratio' (DTI) they can then inflate their interest rate and use the lender 'rebate' to cover the closing costs up to 3% (points) of their loan amount.

Banks and mortgage bankers typically limit buyers to 1% of the loan amount in lender paid closing costs; mortgage brokers are limited to 3%.

Most buyers initially react poorly to the proposal of a higher initial payment; so let’s do the math (all numbers rounded off) for just the 'P and I' (principal and interest) portion of the monthly payment.  

Get ready to be surprised.

Interest Rate vs. Lender Credit, Scenario 1

$300k Loan

30 year Fixed

Interest Rate: 4% (Zero Points)

Payment: $1432

Lender Credit to Buyer: “Zero Dollars”

Scenario 2

$300k Loan

30 year Fixed

Interest Rate: 4.5% (Zero Points)

Payment: $1520

Lender Credit to Buyer: $6,000

Dividing the $6000 credit by the higher payment of $88, puts the buyer in the positive cash flow position for 5 years 8 months (68).

The issue to keep in mind, during those '68' months it’s (statistically) a virtual certainty the homeowner will:

1) Purchase a 'move-up' home

2) Refinance their current loan to a lower rate, get rid of their monthly mortgage insurance or get a 'cash out' refi.

Government Loans

If a buyer is getting an FHA or VA loan, we can 'streamline refinance' their loan 7 months later to a significantly lower interest rate with little or no closing costs.

In Closing

The amount of lender paid closing costs a buyers can receive varies by each type of lender.

Mortgage brokers can pay up to 3% of the loan amount while banks and direct lenders are limited to 1%.

So shop around, it can be the difference of thousands of dollars.  Call me anytime if you have questions.  

Ken

951-760-3833

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